Sinema left the Democratic Party to become an independent in December 2022. Progressive Democrat Ruben Gallego is the leading Democratic candidate and has a huge financial advantage over the other Democratic candidate, Alexander Keller. 

Kari Lake, loser in the 2022 governor’s race and receptor of Donald Trump’s endorsement, has the greatest name recognition. Pinal County sheriff Mark Lamb is also running for the GOP nomination along with seven other less well-known candidates. 

Sinema has decided not to seek reelection. Early polls have Lake and Gallego within 1% of each other, and the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate the race a toss-up. Arizonans' concerns about illegal immigration may present an obstacle for the Democrats in this race. The primary is August 6.

District 22 is heavily agricultural and includes the San Joaquin Valley. Its population is 60% Latino, with 43% of the registered voters being Democratic, 26% Republican, and 23% independent. The district has a history of crossing over to Republicans despite heavy Democratic registration. While Biden carried the district by 13% in 2020, Democratic governor Newsom narrowly lost it during his last successful election.

In 2022, both parties pumped millions of dollars into this election, and Valadao prevailed by 3% over Democratic challenger Rudy Salas. Except for losing in 2018, Valadao won every other race from 2012 to 2022 for this seat. While Valadao has a $2.6M war chest, he has a MAGA challenger in former Fresno city councilor Chris Mathys ($333K). Valadao was one of the few Republicans in Congress to vote for Trump’s impeachment and some in the GOP wish to punish him for that.

Valadao has at times supported a nationwide ban on abortion without exceptions, but lately he has included exceptions. He wants to repeal the Affordable Care Act and replace it with a market-based solution. Valadao supports comprehensive immigration reform with a path to citizenship for those who do not engage in criminal activity, and he supports a guest worker program approach. Mathys takes the MAGA party line and wants to build a wall and end all government support for those here illegally.

Former state assembly member Rudy Salas ($495K) is heavily supported by labor and state and national Democratic organizations. He should easily swamp the other Democrat in the top two primary, Melissa Hurtado ($63K). The excitement in the March 5 primary will be the competition between Valadao, who crafts his positions to fit his district, and the MAGA candidate Chris Mathys.

The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race as a toss-up, while Inside Elections rates it as leaning Republican. This race should be re-evaluated after the March 5 primary.  

Far right-wing Boebert won reelection by only 546 votes over moderate Democrat Adam Frisch in a historically R+9 district. With a slew of personal problems, she has decided to move to congressional district 8 leaving her seat open. Frisch is running again and has Anna Stout as a challenger in the Democratic primary. Frisch has far more cash on hand than Stout and is the early favorite with a $4.3M war chest. There are eight announced Republican candidates. The primary is June 25. A Libertarian candidate will also be on the ballot in the November 2024 election and may siphon away some support from the Republican nominee. There are two unaffiliated candidates as well.

With the retirement of Stabenow, there are presently four Democratic candidates seeking the nomination. Elissa Slotkin, a three-term US House representative, is the strong favorite, with her closest party rival trailing her by 38% in a recent poll. Slotkin has $11M in cash, while her nearest Democratic competitor, Hill Harper, has $1.3M. Nasser Boydoun ($0.7M) and Zack Burns ($29K) are the other Democrats in the race.

There are twelve announced Republican candidates, with three having between $0.5M and $1.8M cash. The primary is August 6.

The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate the race as leaning Democratic. But a recent poll shows Slotkin in a statistical tie with three of the GOP candidates. This race should be reevaluated after the August 6 primary.

There are presently three Democrats seeking to replace Kildee and at least two GOP aspirants. More candidates are likely to emerge in both parties in time for the August 6 primary. Dan Kildee defeated one of the GOP candidates, Paul Junge, by about 10% in 2022. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race as a toss-up, while Inside Elections rates it as leaning Democratic.

Democratic candidate Kristin McDonald Rivet, a centrist state senator, recently entered the race. She has the most endorsements thus far from state legislators and is endorsed by the IBEW and the Plumbers and Pipefitters Union. She plans to run on “kitchen table” issues, lowering prescription drug prices and the cost of child care, affordable housing, and reproductive freedom. Her campaign finances are not presently known.

Danial Moilanen, former chair of the Genesee County Democratic Party, has also entered the contest with $110K.

The third announced Democratic candidate is Pamela Pugh, president of the Michigan Board of Education, with $137K in cash.

GOP candidate ($734K) Paul Junge, who served in the Trump administration’s US Citizenship and Immigration Services and is a local Fox 47 TV news reporter, seems to be the leading candidate thus far. He, too, is focusing his campaign on “kitchen table” issues.

Martin Blank, a surgeon and Afghanistan war veteran ($8K), is the only other announced GOP candidate at this time.

This race should be reevaluated after the August 6 primary.

The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate this race as a toss-up. D’Esposito does not have any GOP challengers. There are six Democrats presently heading into the June 25 primary. Laurie Gillen, who lost to D’Esposito 52-48 in 2022, seeks a rematch and has the most cash at her disposal (about $500k). Kevin Thomas (about $200K) is the only other candidate having more than $100K. The four other candidates are David Denenburg, Lawrence Henry, Gian Jones, and Patricia Maher. This potentially flippable race should be reevaluated after the June 25 primary.

Brandon Williams defeated Democrat Francis Conole 50.5-49.5 to win his first term, and he seeks reelection. Williams has $1.3M of funds. Heading into the June 25 primary, there are five Democrats vying for the nomination: Jacob Addington ($?), Clemmie Harris ($?), Sarah Klee Hood ($500K), Katelyn Kriesel ($15K), and Jim Mannion ($220K).

The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate this race as a toss-up. This potentially flippable race should be reevaluated after the June 25 primary.

In 2022, Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner defeated conservative Democratic incumbent Kurt Schraeder in the Democratic primary for this rural Oregon district. McLeod-Skinner was defeated by 2.1% in November 2022 by Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer.

McLeod-Skinner is running again in 2024, but she has three Democratic challengers in the May 21 primary. McLeod-Skinner has $438K in funding. Matthew Davie, a high-tech executive, is running ($? and no website). Lynn Peterson ($258K) is running but seems to have little support. McLeod-Skinner’s most formidable challenger at this time seems to be Janelle Bynum ($439K).

Bynum has a degree in electrical engineering and an MBA. She bills herself as a common sense pragmatic candidate. She is an Oregon state representative and served on the Semiconductor Committee, Business and Labor Committee, and Judiciary Committee. She owns a McDonald's franchise. She supports affordable housing; addressing homelessness; making Oregon a clean energy hub; small businesses; protecting Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security; and increased spending on public education.

Bynum is receiving extensive support from the Democratic Party national establishment, perhaps because McLeod-Skinner primaried an incumbent in 2022 and her Working Families Party background may seem too left for this rural district. She is supported by Hakeem Jeffries and the Congressional Black Caucus.

McLeod-Skinner has degrees in civil engineering, regional planning and natural resources law. McLeod-Skinner supports reproductive rights; affordable health care; home care; early childhood education; better vocational training; addressing climate change; addressing the needs of working families; and protecting democracy.

Lori Chavez-DeRemer is a former mayor of a small town near Portland. She opposes abortion; blames the "radical left" for the country's economic problems; supports Second Amendment rights, low taxes, and balanced budgets; and opposes critical race theory.

While this district was Biden+9 in 2020, it is rated as a toss-up. Early polling has McLeod-Skinner with a significant lead over Bynum. This race should be readdressed after the May 21 primary.